yield curve

A graph showing the relationship between bond yields (interest rates) and their maturity dates — normally upward-sloping (longer-term bonds pay more), but an inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) is a historically reliable recession predictor.

• yield/jiːld/(n)收益率

• yield curve inversion
• inverted yield curve
• flat yield curve
• normal yield curve
• yield curve steepening
• yield curve as indicator

1. 1.An inverted yield curve has preceded every US recession since 1955 — when investors expect trouble, they flee to long-term bonds, driving down long-term yields below short-term rates. (recession predictor)
2. 2.A steep yield curve (big gap between short-term and long-term rates) signals economic optimism: investors expect growth and inflation, demanding higher compensation for longer commitments. (economic indicator)

• term structure of interest rates (formal economic name for the same concept)

"yield" from Old English "gieldan" (to pay) + "curve" from Latin "curvus" (bent) — the bent line of what bonds pay